Week 2 of the 2024 NFL season (Slight Return)
Everything from Week 2 of the 2024 NFL season, in one big Linkapalooza!
Now that Week 2 of the 2024 NFL season is in the proverbial books, here are a few things I’ve written about it at various places (including here!)
TrendWatch for Week 3's Sunday/Monday games (Substack)
With help from the good folks at Pro Football Focus, Sports Info Solutions, and Next Gen Stats, I did a deep dive on all the most pertinent metrics the Week games on Sunday and Monday.
The Philadelphia Eagles, for example, do not have great prospects against the New Orleans Saints.
The Saints are leading their run game with Philly’s Kryptonite.
Under new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, the Saints lead the NFL with 40 outside zone runs. They’ve averaged 4.8 yards per carry with two touchdowns on those runs. The Eagles have faced outside zone runs 24 times, allowing 194 yards, a league-high (by far) 8.1 yards per carry, a league-worst 5.1 yards after contact per attempt, and an opponent Rushing EPA of +0.13, fourth-worst in the NFL.
The Saints’ passing game gives the Eagles few better answers.
Derek Carr has been the NFL’s best passer this season with the benefit of pre-snap motion, which Kubiak is using at a far higher rate than his predecessors. Carr has completed 30 of 39 passes with motion for 443 yards, 220 air yards, five touchdowns, one interception, a league-high passer rating of 142.4, and a Passing EPA of +16.05 — only Baker Mayfield of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers has been better in that department.
Against pre-snap motion in the passing game this season, the Eagles defense has allowed 15 completions on 27 attempts for 228 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, an opponent passer rating of 108.3, and a Passing EPA of +7.11.
Mel Kiper Jr. Wants To Ban Two-Deep Coverage In the NFL When Offenses Are Finally Beating It (Athlon Sports)
Yes, the NFL’s “two-deep revolution” has affected passing games over the last few seasons. But it’s interesting that ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. promoted the idea of banning two-deep coverage right when the league’s best offensive play-designers are establishing specific and consistent concepts to beat it.
Per Sports Info Solutions, quarterbacks against single-high coverages (Cover-1 and Cover-3, which is the zone coverage version of Cover-1) completed 5,377 passes on 8,766 attempts (61.0%) for 67,469 yards (7.70 yards per attempt), 307 touchdowns (a 3.50% rate), 179 interceptions (2.04%), and a passer rating of 88.12.
When facing two deep safeties in 2022 (Cover-2, 2-Man, Cover-4, and Cover-6), quarterbacks completed 4,443 passes on 6,838 attempts (65.0%) for 49,446 yards (7.23 yards per attempt), 179 touchdowns (2.62%), 198 interceptions (2.90%), and a passer rating of 83.02.
In 2023, against single-high stuff, quarterbacks completed 5,145 of 8,435 passes (61.0%) for 64,642 yards (7.67 yards per attempt), 303 touchdowns (3.6%), 211 interceptions (2.5%), and a passer rating of 86.40.
And against two-high coverages in 2023, quarterbacks completed 4,709 of 7,250 passes (65.0%) for 53,369 yards (7.36 yards per attempt), 175 touchdowns (2.41%), 184 interceptions (2.54%), and a passer rating of 84.35.
Now, through two full weeks of the 2024 season, things are starting to turn around. We've all heard that passing numbers are down so far this season, which is evidently at the heart of Kiper's overreaction. While it's true that the aerial game has been less impressive so far in the new season, two-high stuff is far from the ultimate culprit. These numbers are held to a small sample size and therefore subject to radical change as the season goes along, but here's what we have so far.
Against single-high coverages in 2024, quarterbacks have completed 493 of 819 passes (60.1%) for 6,104 yards (7.45 yards per attempt), 28 touchdowns (3.42%), 26 interceptions (3.18%), and a passer rating of 81.47.
Against two-high coverages in 2024, quarterbacks have completed 495 of 736 passes (67.2%) for 5,354 yards (7.27 yards per attempt), 14 touchdowns (1.90%), 19 interceptions (2.58%), and a passer rating of... 84.02.
That's right — though the overall efficiency numbers are still better for quarterbacks against single-high, they've actually gone down a bit in the new season, and quarterback work against two-deep has mobilized upwardly to a similar degree.
Bryce Young's Only Hope for NFL Redemption Is to Be a Backup... on Another Team (Athlon Sports)
After the Carolina Panthers decided to bench Bryce Young last Monday in favor of Andy Dalton (!!!), I did a deep dive on where Young is in his NFL career. As ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky told me when I asked him what he’d do for Young if he were Young’s next quarterback coach:
"Fix him from the ground up. He has zero base right now and is playing in a drift/feel state rather than a consistency and conviction state. It’s like sitting 0-2 as a baseball hitter versus a pitcher with a 100-mile-per-hour fastball and a 88-mile-per-hour hook. [It's a] total guess for him."
Looking at Young’s tape, it’s hard to argue. One full season and two more games into his NFL span, the 2023 first-overall pick struggles in every possible way.
Even in his college days, Young needed an "elastic" pocket to make it work, which is to say that his in-pocket movement has never been great. And with NFL route concepts, against NFL defenses, that will eventually get you in a lot of trouble. If you can't re-set in the pocket, you are going to leave the pocket before you should, which really limits your options as a pure passer.
Young is also to the point where a lot of unprepared and NFL-"ruined" quarterbacks get — they become late processors and late throwers, and they'll throw their receivers closed when the whole point is to use anticipation to throw one's receivers open.
Young needs a coach who will redefine everything for him as that coach is able to build him back up, as Orlovsky said. There are recent examples of this happening under the right circumstances.
Anatomy of a Play: Sam Darnold’s 97-Yard TD Pass Had Its Origins in Week 7 of 2023 (Athlon Sports)
I love it when coaches use plays to test and determine the tendencies of an opponent. I love it even more when coaches take plays that have worked in previous games against specific opponents, flip them around, and make them work even better.
Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell is one of the NFL’s four or five best offensive play-callers (I will brook no argument), and it was fascinating how he set quarterback Sam Darnold up for a 97-yard touchdown pass to Justin Jefferson against the San Francisco 49ers based on a concept the Vikings used against San Francisco in a Week 7 win last year.
“The 97-yarder was one of the prettiest throws I've seen,” O’Connell said postgame. “It actually goes back to a look we ran on them last year. Similar presentation, similar everything. That one has been in the hopper for a little bit. Did not know I would call it, backed up with our feet in the paint like that. Great protection in that moment. Elite execution by both Speedy [Nailor] -- I think Speedy would have been a long hit as well, depending on who Sam chose, and he chose the right one launching that thing. As pretty of a throw as I've seen, especially in those circumstances.”
The Vikings had first-and-10 from their own 21-yard line, and this time, it was KJ Osborn and Jordan Addison on the deep switch release. In this case, Kirk Cousins had the switch to the backside, and he completed an 18-yard pass to Osborn. The difference here was that Cousins hit his target on the deep over route once Addison cleared the two safeties up top on the vertical route, while Darnold hit Jefferson on the vertical route – which, when it’s Justin Jefferson out there, is probably what you want to do.
Gardner Minshew, Antonio Gibson, Andrew Van Ginkel Among Underrated Stars for Week 2 (Athlon Sports)
One of my favorite columns to write every week, because I love giving praise to those NFL players who have earned far more praise than they actually receive.
On Minnesota Vikings edge terror Andrew Van Ginkel, who does a lot more than just rush the passer:
Van Ginkel has two sacks, six total pressures, five solo tackles, four stops, and an opponent passer rating of 60.4 allowed on two targets. But his value to his new defense has gone beyond the stat sheet. Flores can deploy his new man from just about any gap, and especially in conjunction with former Houston Texans edge-rusher Jonathan Greenard, another wise offseason acquisition, it's pretty tough to figure out who to block where.
Van Ginkel isn't just an pass-rusher, though — he fits so well in Flores' defense because he also has off-ball skills, and if you throw anything anywhere near the flat to his side, he's just as likely as not to pick off the pass and return it for six.
Klint Kubiak's New Orleans Saints Offense Is the New Terror of the NFL (Athlon Sports)
Did you expect the New Orleans Saints to have the NFL’s best and most explosive offense after the first two weeks of the NFL season? This was supposed to be a boring team with a journeyman quarterback in Derek Carr, led by little-known offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. But these guys have put something together that is just about impossible to stop, and the root of it is Kubiak’s understanding that New Orleans’ offense needed to change, and his bravery in doing so to an EXTREME degree.
A source in the Saints' organization told me after the Cowboys game that Kubiak "is very detailed, and has much conviction for constantly changing looks."
That may be true, but Kubiak has also already established some clear trends for his passing game, and for his offense in general.
Per Next Gen Stats, the Saints aligned under center more than any other offense in Week 1 (61%) while using play-action on over a third of dropbacks for the first time since signing Derek Carr (39%). Last season, the Saints ranked dead-last in play action usage (14%) and bottom six in motion rate (45%). The Saints aligned in two-back formations on a league-high 37% of plays in Week 1, compared to just 6% in 2023. Another key change was their usage of condensed formations (53%), nearly doubling their rate last season (27%).
Kubiak doubled down on all of it against Dallas.
Against the Cowboys, the Saints aligned under center on 42 of 56 plays, and had two backs on the field 53% of the time. In both cases, this was the most by any team in any game since the Patriots vs. the Bills in the 2021 Wind Bowl. In that game, Patriots quarterback Mac Jones completed two of three attempts for 19 yards, and New England beat the daylights out of the Bills with different variations of crack toss runs.
Jalen Ramsey’s new Dolphins contract may have been a major miscalculation (SB Nation)
For the second time in his remarkable career, Jalen Ramsey re-set the cornerback market when the Miami Dolphins gave him a new three-year, $72.3 million extension. But based on the tape, Miami may have made the mistake of paying their star for what he was once capable of, as opposed to what he’s able to accomplish in the future.
Through two games in the 2024 season, Ramsey has allowed two catches on two targets for 40 yards, no touchdowns, no interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 118.8. As we will see, those numbers could easily be much worse. He’s missed four tackles, and he has just two solo tackles. And the tape shows all kinds of examples showing Ramsey out of phase with the defense put on the field by new defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver.
The Dolphins obviously hope that all this has to do with the hamstring injury, and that all will be well over time. But when I went to Ramsey’s 2023 tape, there were too many examples of Ramsey allowing tight-window completions against good-to-great receivers.