TrendWatch for Thursday night's Patriots-Jets game
Which advanced metrics matter for Thursday night's game between the New England Patriots and the New York Jets?
I’m going to start posting advanced metrics every week that will hopefully give you insight into each game. The TrendWatch preview for Thursday night’s Patriots-Jets game is a freebie for all readers; I’ll have a larger TrendWatch for all the Sunday and Monday games for paid subscribers.
(All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus, Sports Info Solutions, and Next Gen Stats unless otherwise indicated).
New England Patriots at New York Jets
Were it not for second-year pass-rusher Keion White, the Patriots would be ill-prepared to generate much quarterback pressure of any kind.
Through the first two games of the 2024 season, New England’s defense has generated the league third-lowest pressure rate at 24.1%. White, who has five sacks already from four different gaps and eight overall pressures, is the focal point of the Patriots’ defense, and the man the Jets’ offensive line might want to double.
The Jets have allowed just two sacks and 10 total pressures this season — that pressure number is tied with three other teams (the Packers, Colts, and Chargers) for third-lowest in the NFL.
If the Patriots are able to bring pressure, Aaron Rodgers won’t like it.
Guess who has the NFL’s worst passer rating under pressure this season? That would be Mr. Rodgers, who has completed four of 10 passes for 26 yards, no touchdowns, one interception, a passer rating of 8.3, and an EPA per dropback of -1.09, fifth-worst in the NFL.
The Patriots make their rushing intentions clear — and they don’t care.
The Patriots have mitigated their offensive line issues by putting six OL on the field at the league’s highest rate. And when they do, they’re telegraphing the run. On all but one of their 26 plays with 6OL, they’ve run the ball
The Patriots have generated a 52.0% rushing success rate when using 6+ OL, and just a 36.0% rushing success rate without extra lineman. The Jets have allowed 4.2 yards per carry (3rd-most) and a 42.1% success rate (10th-highest) when facing six or more offensive linemen since 2023, on 38 carries.
The Jets have a Sauce Gardner problem.
Ordinarily, we’d consider the Patriots’ underwhelming passing game vs. the Jets’ normally great defense to be a massive edge for Gang Green. But among cornerbacks that have played at least 50% of their snaps through the first two games of the season, Sauce Gardner — rightly considered to be one of the NFL’s best cornerbacks — has allowed the highest opponent passer rating in the league (153.3), giving up five catches on seven targets for 97 yards, 19 yards after the catch, one touchdown, and no interceptions. If Gardner continues to struggle, opposing teams might throw at him more often, which could really upset the balance of New York’s defense.